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Strategies for Fuel Cell Commercialisation
As might be expected, the Americans lead the way in commercialisation strategies (at least by published volume, if not by choice of President). The appeal of fuel cells is manyfold with strategic independence from Middle-Eastern oil being none too insignificant. In this context fuel cells are not so much a technology as a component of a Hydrogen Economy.
There is a lot happening in this field both in terms of production
and implementation. I will present further information at a later date. For
the moment:
- Below is an excerpt from my Masters project.
- Search for "The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak?" to reveal many of the arguments for and against a hydrogen economy.
- See Newsletters.
- Visit Fuel Cell Today.
- Visit Hydrogen-Economy.org.
- Visit ElectrochemicalEconomy.com.
Fuel Cell Marketing
Products must be designed to meet consumer demand, not just maximise exploitation
of fuel potential. Lack of appreciation of the importance of this statement
has hampered the development of renewable energy technologies for many years.
This is not likely to be a problem with fuel cells in the future as it is
now well understood in the Fuel Cell community - in fact I would argue that
many have gone too far, and see fuel cells as another consumer product - that
is an ADDITIONAL thing to own rather than an alternative.
Market Size and Growth
The Fuel Cell market is a relatively new market with few commercial systems
in operation. However, there is a multitude of technologies, with capacities
of Ws to MWs, undergoing demonstration. By 2010 it is expected that
systems capable of full filling most sectors of the projected 160GW, US$150,000
billion p.a. (1/3 of gross world product), global energy market will be in
production. (these numbers are very large - I will check and reference them
in due course)
Drivers for Market Growth
Favourable Characteristics - Their high efficiency essentially independent
of scale, combined with good part load characteristics, rapid load following,
flexibility of fuel supply and flexibility of load factor gives fuel cells
a strong position in a wide range of applications.
Government market stimulation programs - ranging from tax breaks in the form of green taxes, subsidies in the form of preferential rates for clean energy and government build programs (currently mainly transport applications) have had a dramatic effect on the Japanese, German and American markets. The desire to develop comparative advantage in an emerging industry combined with international CO2 quotas will ensure continuing governmental support.
Sustainability Culture -- Environmentalism has been an important part of world cultures for several decades. But it has not played a large part in global economics (with the exception of environmental disasters) until very recently. Increasing awareness of the economic cost of environmental degradation has led the world’s financial institutions to take an interest, making vast amounts of capital available for development and marketing. Solar Century is a company capitalising on this to drive adoption of Solar Photovoltaics.
Barriers to Market Growth
- Cost -- Competition in the power generation market is fierce, with cost per kW and risk (real and perceived) being the key factors in technology selection. Fuel cells simply cannot compete at present with established turbomachinery plant. Costs must be driven down through technology and economies of scale.
- Over Hyping -- Fuel cells have been heralded as the answer to all our energy needs several times in recent history, each time before they were ready even to fill their role in an integrated energy strategy, let alone save the world. The benefits of the technology must be forcefully but realistically presented to overcome doubt inherent in something presented as being ‘too good to be true’.
- Institutional Inertia -- There is a very highly developed carbon based economy, with much vested interest which means that (conspiracy theories aside) transition to a hydrogen (or more realistically, a partially hydrogen) economy will not happen fast until the technology is developed sufficiently to force change.
- Chicken and Egg -- In order for use of hydrogen technologies to spread a hydrogen infrastructure must be developed, but a hydrogen infrastructure will not develop until there is a sufficiently large adoption of hydrogen technologies. This is a barrier integrated fossil fuel reforming can help climb.
Market Sectors
The energy market is diverse with very different characteristics demanded
by different sectors. The basic market segments are:
- Standalone Power Generation -- large (kW & MW) scale plants for industrial and residential supply.
- Integrated Power Generation -- variable scale plants using solar and wind technology combined with water electrolysing plant and fuel cells to provide totally clean, renewable energy on demand.
- Transport -- intermediate (100s of W & kW) scale plant which is robust and able to cope with rapid load changes for use in personal and commercial transport.
- Mobile -- small scale (W & 10s of W) plant for portable electrical and electronic equipment.
- Space & Military -- very high specification variable scale plant for transport, mobile power generation, and small scale uses.
Reference:
This material is taken from my masters project. Read the whole thing
for context.